With quantity for the month projected at 1.27 million items,
S&P International Mobility analysts count on March 2023 to be up extra
than 11% from the month-prior tally, attributable to a few
extra promoting days. The anticipated March 2023 quantity could be
aligned with the year-ago interval (with the identical variety of promoting
days), reflecting that gross sales momentum will probably be troublesome to maintain
given present financial headwinds and tailwinds.

March 2023 US auto gross sales are anticipated to translate to an
estimated gross sales tempo of 13.8 million items (seasonally adjusted
annual fee: SAAR), down meaningfully from the January 2023 studying
of 15.9 million items. Nonetheless, that tempo would carry the primary
quarter common gross sales fee to 14.9 million items. This might
symbolize the strongest quarterly tempo for the reason that second quarter of
2021 – albeit nowhere close to the SAAR studying of 16.7 million items
at the moment, when the auto market was nonetheless experiencing the
pleasantness of stimulus checks and earlier than provide chain points
started.

“Incoming studies of sustained – however nonetheless muted – retail demand
in March replicate that these auto customers prepared, prepared, and ready
to enter into a brand new car settlement are persevering with to take action, even
in gentle of rising rates of interest and still-high car worth
ranges,” mentioned Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P International
Mobility. “New car incentives are rising slowly from
traditionally low ranges as car manufacturing advances. The specter
of additional hikes in rates of interest, and acceptance of present
unsettled financial circumstances, could also be offering impetus for these
contemplating buying a brand new car.”

S&P International Mobility tasks calendar-year 2023 quantity of
14.9 million items within the US, an 8% enhance from the 2022 tally.
Auto gross sales will probably be supported by advancing manufacturing ranges, alongside
with studies of sustained retail order books, recovering inventory of
autos, and improved fleet demand.

Sustained growth of battery-electric car (BEV) gross sales
stays a constant assumption for 2023. BEV share has hovered
round 8% over the course of the primary two months of the 12 months. At a
projected stage of 8.0% share is predicted to stay robust. Whereas
Tesla’s pricing changes have been the primary shot in a BEV worth struggle,
the response of different auto corporations will decide whether or not the
positive aspects within the BEV combine stage will probably be a blip within the pattern or a dynamic
tipping level within the electrification progress of the market. Past
the pricing developments, a sustained churn of recent and refreshed
BEVs will proceed to advertise BEV gross sales because the 12 months progresses.

This text was revealed by S&P International Mobility and never by S&P International Scores, which is a individually managed division of S&P International.