New Zealand EV Market Crash: 5% Penetration in January 2024

New Zealand EV Market Crash: 5% Penetration in January 2024


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January delivered an EV market crash in plug-in electrical car gross sales in New Zealand, to their lowest stage in a number of years. After the monster sales records of December 2023, the removing of the EV tax incentive, and the double whammy of the Highway Person Cost (RUC), it was to be anticipated. Nevertheless, the scale of the autumn was nonetheless a shock. Gross sales of luxurious EVs don’t seem like affected (they didn’t obtain any incentives underneath the earlier authorities), and Toyota appears to have entered the BEV market — for the primary time making the highest ten. Quelle shock! BMW was the highest promoting model!

Stalking on the NZ EV Fb web page reveals a sanguine method from the New Zealand electrical car group — “watch for a couple of months,” “examine the quarterly knowledge,” and “don’t neglect that this 12 months’s boats stuffed with BYDs and Tesla’s haven’t arrived but.” February and March knowledge can be an attention-grabbing learn — keep tuned. My “analysis” additionally revealed that there are nonetheless many chargers being put in all through the islands of the lengthy white cloud. So, clearly, EV uptake is anticipated to proceed, although probably at a slower tempo. The typical of the final three months is 30%, based on James at EVDB.

Solely 244 new battery electrical automobiles have been registered in New Zealand in January 2024 (after 4,455 have been registered in December 2023). The low-cost fashions appeared to have the very best discount. The chief of the pack in January (supplanting the MG4) was the Seal, with 31 items, adopted by the Tesla Mannequin Y (25 items) after which third place going to the Toyota BZ4X (23 items).

Of the over 8,000 mild automobiles offered in January, BEVs comprised round 3%, PHEVs took 2.5% of the market, and a couple of,434 plug-less hybrids have been offered for 30% market share (remaining just about secure from December). In the meantime, 4,340 petrol-powered automobiles have been offered (nearly 4 instances what have been offered in December 2023) for a 54% share of the market, and double the variety of diesels have been offered than in December. Ford scored effectively with the Everest (304 gross sales) and the Transit (20 gross sales).

The highest ten greatest promoting battery electrical automobiles offered in New Zealand in January 2024 have been:

  1. BYD Seal (31 gross sales, down from 159 final month)
  2. Tesla Mannequin Y (25 gross sales, down from 356 final month)
  3. Toyota BZ4X (23 gross sales)
  4. Subaru Solterra (21 gross sales)
  5. Audi e-tron (14 gross sales)
  6. BMW 1 (13 gross sales)
  7. BMW 4 (12 gross sales)
  8. MG4 (12 gross sales, down from 622 final month)
  9. BMW X 1 (9 gross sales)
  10. Ford Mustang Mach-E (9 gross sales)

Particular commendation to the Kia EV9, which had 8 gross sales and simply missed the highest 10. In fact, if we included second-hand imports, the Nissan LEAF could be high of the desk with 34 items offered.

Clearly, eradicating the “ute tax” has hit the decrease price automobiles probably the most – three BMWs and an Audi have taken slots from so known as reasonably priced fashions on the charts this month. The Koreans are additionally having a gradual month. Who would have thought we’d see a Toyota mannequin within the high ten for BEVs (or Subaru)? Though, I’ve seen the BZ4X promoting effectively in Europe and getting within the high 20 in some nations. I want Toyota effectively and hope they quickly be part of the EV social gathering with full enthusiasm. It will be nice if they may transition their dealerships and clients from HEV to BEV. Time will inform.

As was to be anticipated, there was quite a lot of commentary on the NZ EV Fb web page about Toyota’s inclusion. Some discovered it past perception. Others thought that it was primarily pushed by model loyalty and Toyota’s popularity for reliability. My concern could be about how lengthy model loyalty will final if Toyota can’t compete with different manufacturers — for worth — primarily BYD and Tesla. Hopefully, cross purchasing will happen. I’m positive there can be a number of conversations across the chargers. Will Toyota be part of the opposite manufacturers in accessing Tesla’s tremendous charging community? Will we proceed to react like Pavlov’s canine?

Some commentators level to Toyota’s very profitable advertising campaigns, loyal fan base, and fleet consumers. Will Toyota cease preferencing HEVs over BEVs? When will it be capable of let go of hydrogen? Some level out that Toyota’s (and Subaru’s) e-TNGA platform is sort of new and must be highway confirmed. A lot in order that one inquisitive EV shopper took the BZ4X for a drive and concluded that it felt like driving a first-generation EV, boring and lacking a number of options that you’d anticipate from a contemporary electrical car.

For an extended overview see here:

Maybe the very best remark was: time to cease sneering at Toyota. Sure, they’re late. Whereas what they’re providing is not so good as a Tesla or as low cost as a BYD, individuals belief the Toyota model. The extra EVs on the highway, the higher. Hear, hear I say.

The highest ten promoting plug-in hybrids in January 2024 (PHEVs) have been:

  1. Porsche Cayenne (24 gross sales)
  2. Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross (18, down from 249 final month)
  3. Volkswagen Tuareg (14)
  4. Mini Countryman (14), down from 16 final month
  5. Land Rover Defender (13)
  6. Mitsubishi Outlander (10) down from 320 final month
  7. BMW X 5 (9)
  8. Land Rover, Rover Sport (8)
  9. Lexus NX (8)
  10. Audi Q5 (7)

All collectively, 202 PHEVs offered in January 2024. Placing this chart collectively was a bizarre expertise as a result of prevalence of luxurious automobiles. I couldn’t escape the query: Will PHEVs survive with out the “ute tax”? Provided that there aren’t any comparable BEV variations coming south to NZ, I anticipate.

The Highway Person Cost (RUC) will kick in on April 1st and add a value of roughly $76 per 1000 km for the EV driver. Feels like so much, till you take a look at the price of petrol at $3 a litre. Cash leaves your pockets and goes to Saudi at an astonishing charge – it’s magic! James at EVDB tells us that underneath the RUC, “ large, inefficient combustion automobiles can pay probably the most. Though RUCs on EVs will be seen as a disincentive to go full EV, there’s some incentive within the system to decide on an environment friendly car over an enormous fuel guzzler.”

“What’s the heaviest EV in NZ? Mercedes-Benz EQS 450 SUV — a 7-seater with a 108 kWh battery, and an elephantine kerb weight of two,918 kg (a minimum of based on the brochure). In 2024, the median worth of a brand new EV in NZ is $79,990. Issues are transferring in the best route. The entry-level worth in NZ has dropped considerably (to round $50,000).”

Probably probably the most weird response to the RUC is individuals who have purchased a PHEV due to the tax incentives who are actually attempting to remove the electrical input in order to not need to pay up. Why did they purchase a PHEV within the first place? In the event that they used it as a PHEV, they might save loads sufficient to cowl the RUC.

The New Yr will see extra fashions coming to New Zealand, and because the mud settles, we could quickly return to the 30% penetration achieved all through most of 2023. In 2024, expect to see the Zeekr, the Nissan Ariya, the Porsche Macan, the BYD Sea Lion, and the Polestar 4 enter the market. Regardless of the latest blip, the long run appears vivid, and electrical.

Photograph by Partha Narasimhan on Unsplash

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